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, Extended Data Fig. 3 | Effect of varying by +/-20% individual model parameter value on cumulative incidence a, cumulative mortality b, and ICU-bed occupancy c, for the difference between the strategies 'post-lockdown physical distancing and mask-wearing for the general population, and shielding of at-risk individuals' and 'post-lockdown physical distancing and mask-wearing for the general population
, Extended Data Fig. 4 | Impact of fixing the parameter value of masks' efficacy at 36% a, c, e, and 79% b, d, f, instead of 53% as in the main analysis, on cumulative incidence (a, b), cumulative mortality (c, d), and number of ICU beds needed (e, f). the dotted lines represent the uncertainty range
, Extended Data Fig. 5 | Impact of assuming that the risk of contamination is reduced by 50% a, c, e, and 80% b, d, f, on cumulative incidence (a, b), cumulative mortality (c, d), and number of ICU beds needed (e, f). the dotted lines represent the uncertainty range
, The stochastic agent-based microsimulation model (ABM) was run for 360 days on 500,000 individuals. The results were based on an average of 200 simulations. Analyses were performed on May 17th using data for model parameters until April 15th. Results were extrapolated to the French population of 67 million people
, Data exclusions None Replication We provided uncertainty measures by using 200 bootstrap samples based on the random variation of all non-calibrated parameters simultaneously, either within a 95% confidence interval for parameters estimated from the literature or within a +/-20% interval if the parameter was assumed. We examined the robustness of our results by evaluating the impact on outcomes of varying successively individual parameter values by +/-20%, without recalibrating the model. Given the uncertainty of the two calibrated parameters and of the efficacy of masks, we performed sensitivity analyses and evaluated the impact of varying values of these parameters on the predicted epidemic course. These analyses are detailed for the intervention 'post-lockdown physical distancing and mask-wearing for the general population' and 'shielding of at-risk individuals in addition of physical distancing and mask-wearing
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