Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Journal articles

A stochastic agent-based model of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in France

Abstract : Many European countries have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by implementing nationwide protection measures and lockdowns1. However, the epidemic could rebound when such measures are relaxed, possibly leading to a requirement for a second or more, repeated lockdowns2. Here, we present results of a stochastic agent-based microsimulation model of the COVID-19 epidemic in France. We examined the potential impact of post-lockdown measures, including physical distancing, mask-wearing and shielding individuals who are the most vulnerable to severe COVID-19 infection, on cumulative disease incidence and mortality, and on intensive care unit (ICU)-bed occupancy. While lockdown is effective in containing the viral spread, once lifted, regardless of duration, it would be unlikely to prevent a rebound. Both physical distancing and mask-wearing, although effective in slowing the epidemic and in reducing mortality, would also be ineffective in ultimately preventing ICUs from becoming overwhelmed and a subsequent second lockdown. However, these measures coupled with the shielding of vulnerable people would be associated with better outcomes, including lower mortality and maintaining an adequate ICU capacity to prevent a second lockdown. Benefits would nonetheless be markedly reduced if most people do not adhere to these measures, or if they are not maintained for a sufficiently long period.
Document type :
Journal articles
Complete list of metadata

Cited literature [32 references]  Display  Hide  Download
Contributor : Clara Martinez Rico Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Friday, October 16, 2020 - 4:07:24 PM
Last modification on : Friday, August 5, 2022 - 11:56:24 AM


 Restricted access
To satisfy the distribution rights of the publisher, the document is embargoed until : jamais

Please log in to resquest access to the document




Nicolas Hoertel, Martin Blachier, Carlos Blanco, Mark Olfson, Marc Massetti, et al.. A stochastic agent-based model of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in France. Nature Medicine, Nature Publishing Group, 2020, 26 (9), pp.1417-1421. ⟨10.1038/s41591-020-1001-6⟩. ⟨inserm-02969478⟩



Record views