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Potential lethal outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) among the elderly in retirement homes and long-term facilities, France, March 2020

Jean-François Etard 1, 2, * Philippe Vanhems 3, 4 Laëtitia Atlani-Duault 5, 6 René Ecochard 7, 8, 9
* Corresponding author
1 EpiGreen [Paris]
2 TransVIHMI - Recherches Translationnelles sur le VIH et les maladies infectieuses endémiques er émergentes
3 LPE-Fondation Mérieux - Laboratoire des pathogènes émergents -- Emerging Pathogens Laboratory
CIRI - Centre International de Recherche en Infectiologie - UMR
4 SHEIP - Service d'Hygiène, Épidémiologie, Infectiovigilance et Prévention [Lyon]
5 FMSH - Fondation Maison des sciences de l'homme
6 CEPED - UMR_D 196 - Centre population et développement
7 Université de Lyon
8 Service de Biostatistique-Bioinformatique [Lyon]
9 Biostatistiques santé
Département biostatistiques et modélisation pour la santé et l'environnement [LBBE]
Abstract : Motivated by the potential devastating effect of a COVID-19 outbreak in retirement homes and long-term facilities for dependent elderly, we present the impact of worst-case scenarios in French institutions using a specific age structure and case-age fatality ratios. The death toll could equal the yearly death toll caused by seasonal influenza in those older than 65 years or could largely exceed that, depending on the final attack rate and proportion of infected institutions.
Keywords : long-term care facilities elderly COVID-19
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https://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-02559367
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Submitted on : Thursday, April 30, 2020 - 12:28:37 PM
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Jean-François Etard, Philippe Vanhems, Laëtitia Atlani-Duault, René Ecochard. Potential lethal outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) among the elderly in retirement homes and long-term facilities, France, March 2020. Eurosurveillance, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 2020, 25 (15), ⟨10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.15.2000448⟩. ⟨inserm-02559367⟩

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