Development, validation and clinical impact of a prediction model for 6-month mortality in older cancer patients: the GRADE - Archive ouverte HAL Access content directly
Journal Articles Aging Year : 2020

Development, validation and clinical impact of a prediction model for 6-month mortality in older cancer patients: the GRADE

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: To develop, validate, and assess the clinical impact of a clinical score to predict a 6-month mortality risk among older cancer patients. RESULTS: The mean age was 81.2 ± 6.1 years (women: 54%, various cancers, metastatic cancer: 45%). The score, namely the GRADE, included two geriatric variables (unintentional weight loss, impaired mobility), two oncological variables (cancer site, cancer extension), and exclusively supportive care. Up to a 14% risk of early death, the decision curves suggest that cancer treatment should be instated. CONCLUSION: We have developed and validated a simple score, easy to implement in daily oncological practice, to predict early death among older cancer patients which could guide oncologists in their treatment decisions. METHODS: 603 outpatients prospectively included in the Physical Frailty in Elderly Cancer patients cohort study. We created a multivariate prediction model by evaluating the strength of the individual components of the Geriatric Assessment regarding risk of death at 6 months. Each component was evaluated by univariate analysis and the significant variables (P ≤ 0.20) were carried on as covariates in the multivariate cox proportion hazard analysis. The beta coefficients from the model were used to build a point-based scoring system. Clinical impact was assessed using decision curves.
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Dates and versions

inserm-02528086 , version 1 (01-04-2020)

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Eurydice Angeli, Kader Chouahnia, Florence Canoui-Poitrine, Boris Duchemann, Thomas Aparicio, et al.. Development, validation and clinical impact of a prediction model for 6-month mortality in older cancer patients: the GRADE. Aging, 2020, 12 (5), pp.4230-4246. ⟨10.18632/aging.102876⟩. ⟨inserm-02528086⟩
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