AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The relationship between insulin secretion and the incidence of hypertension has not been well characterised. We hypothesised that both a parental history of diabetes and TCF7L2 rs7903146 polymorphism, which increases susceptibility to diabetes because of impaired beta cell function, are associated with incident hypertension. In a separate cohort, we assessed whether low insulin secretion is related to incident hypertension. METHODS: Nine year incident hypertension was studied in 2,391 normotensive participants from the Data from an Epidemiological Study on the Insulin Resistance Syndrome (DESIR) cohort. The relationship between insulin secretion and 3 year incident hypertension was investigated in 1,047 non-diabetic, normotensive individuals from the Relationship between Insulin Sensitivity and Cardiovascular Disease (RISC) cohort. Insulin secretion during OGTT was expressed in relation to the degree of insulin resistance, as assessed by a hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamp. RESULTS: In the DESIR cohort, a parental history of diabetes and the TCF7L2 at-risk variant were both associated with hypertension incidence at year 9, independently of waist circumference, BP, fasting glucose, insulin levels and HOMA-IR at inclusion (p = 0.02 for parental history, p = 0.006 for TCF7L2). In the RISC cohort, a lower insulin secretion rate during the OGTT at baseline was associated with both higher BP and a greater risk of hypertension at year 3. This inverse correlation between the insulin secretion rate and incident hypertension persisted after controlling for baseline insulin resistance, glycaemia and BP (p = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Parental history of diabetes, TCF7L2 rs7903146 polymorphism and a reduced insulin secretion rate were consistently associated with incident hypertension. A low insulin secretion rate might be a new risk factor for incident hypertension, beyond insulin resistance.