Changes over calendar time in the risk of specific first AIDS-defining events following HIV seroconversion, adjusting for competing risks. - Archive ouverte HAL Access content directly
Journal Articles International Journal of Epidemiology Year : 2002

Changes over calendar time in the risk of specific first AIDS-defining events following HIV seroconversion, adjusting for competing risks.

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Abdel Babiker
  • Function : Author
Janet Darbyshire
  • Function : Author
Patrizio Pezzotti
  • Function : Correspondent author
  • PersonId : 847539

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Kholoud Porter
  • Function : Author
Giovanni Rezza
  • Function : Author
Sarah A Walker
  • Function : Author
Valerie Beral
  • Function : Author
Roel Coutinho
  • Function : Author
Julia del Amo
  • Function : Author
Noël Gill
  • Function : Author
Christine Lee
  • Function : Author
Laurence Meyer
Freya Tyrer
  • Function : Author
Rodolphe Thiébaut
Sylvie Lawson-Aye
  • Function : Author
Faroudy Boufassa
Osamah Hamouda
  • Function : Author
Klaus Fischer
  • Function : Author
Patrizio Pezzotti
  • Function : Author
Giota Touloumi
  • Function : Author
Angelos Hatzakis
  • Function : Author
Anastasia Karafoulidou
  • Function : Author
Olga Katsarou
  • Function : Author
Ray Brettle
  • Function : Author
Jorge del Romero
  • Function : Author
Maria Prins
  • Function : Author
Birgit van Benthem
  • Function : Author
Ole Kirk
  • Function : Author
Court Pederson
  • Function : Author
Idelfonso Hernández Aguado
  • Function : Author
Santiago Pérez-Hoyos
  • Function : Author
Anne Eskild
  • Function : Author
Johan N Bruun
  • Function : Author
Mette Sannes
  • Function : Author
Caroline Sabin
  • Function : Author
Anne M Johnson
  • Function : Author
Andrew N Phillips
  • Function : Author
Patrick Francioli
  • Function : Author
Philippe Vanhems
  • Function : Author
  • PersonId : 759616
  • IdRef : 061621196
Mathias Egger
  • Function : Author
Martin Rickenbach
  • Function : Author
David N. Cooper
  • Function : Author
John Kaldor
  • Function : Author
Lesley Ashton
  • Function : Author
Jeanette Vizzard
  • Function : Author
Roberto Muga
  • Function : Author
Nicholas E Day
  • Function : Author
Daniela de Angelis
  • Function : Author

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Although studies have reported large reductions in the risks of AIDS and death since the introduction of potent anti-retroviral therapies, few have evaluated whether this has been similar for all AIDS-defining diseases. We wished to evaluate changes over time in the risk of specific AIDS-defining diseases, as first events, using data from individuals with known dates of HIV seroconversion. METHODS: Using a competing risks proportional hazards model on pooled data from 20 cohorts (CASCADE), we evaluated time from HIV seroconversion to each first AIDS-defining disease (16 groups) and to death without AIDS for four calendar periods, adjusting for exposure category, age, sex, acute infection, and stratifying by cohort. We compared results to those obtained from a cause-specific hazards model. RESULTS: Of 6,941, 2,021 (29%) developed AIDS and 437 (6%) died without AIDS. The risk of AIDS or death remained constant to 1996 then reduced; relative hazard = 0.89 (95% CI: 0.77-1.03); 0.90 (95% CI: 0.81-1.01); and 0.32 (95% CI: 0.28-0.37) for 1979-1990, 1991-1993, and 1997-2001, respectively, compared to 1994-1996. Significant risk reductions in 1997-2001 were observed in all but two AIDS-defining groups and death without AIDS in a competing risks model (with similar results from a cause-specific model). There was significant heterogeneity in the risk reduction across events; from 96% for cryptosporidiosis, to 17% for death without AIDS (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that studies reporting a stable trend for particular AIDS diseases over the period 1979-2001 may not have accounted for the competing risks among other events or lack the power to detect smaller trends.
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Dates and versions

inserm-00263560 , version 1 (12-03-2008)

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Abdel Babiker, Janet Darbyshire, Patrizio Pezzotti, Kholoud Porter, Giovanni Rezza, et al.. Changes over calendar time in the risk of specific first AIDS-defining events following HIV seroconversion, adjusting for competing risks.. International Journal of Epidemiology, 2002, 31 (5), pp.951-8. ⟨inserm-00263560⟩

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