Planning for the next influenza H1N1 season: a modelling study.

Abstract : BACKGROUND: The level of herd immunity before and after the first 2009 pandemic season is not precisely known, and predicting the shape of the next pandemic H1N1 season is a difficult challenge. METHODS: This was a modelling study based on data on medical visits for influenza-like illness collected by the French General Practitioner Sentinel network, as well as pandemic H1N1 vaccination coverage rates, and an individual-centred model devoted to influenza. We estimated infection attack rates during the first 2009 pandemic H1N1 season in France, and the rates of pre- and post-exposure immunity. We then simulated various scenarios in which a pandemic influenza H1N1 virus would be reintroduced into a population with varying levels of protective cross-immunity, and considered the impact of extending influenza vaccination. RESULTS: During the first pandemic season in France, the proportion of infected persons was 18.1% overall, 38.3% among children, 14.8% among younger adults and 1.6% among the elderly. The rates of pre-exposure immunity required to fit data collected during the first pandemic season were 36% in younger adults and 85% in the elderly. We estimated that the rate of post-exposure immunity was 57.3% (95% Confidence Interval (95%CI) 49.6%-65.0%) overall, 44.6% (95%CI 35.5%-53.6%) in children, 53.8% (95%CI 44.5%-63.1%) in younger adults, and 87.4% (95%CI 82.0%-92.8%) in the elderly.The shape of a second season would depend on the degree of persistent protective cross-immunity to descendants of the 2009 H1N1 viruses. A cross-protection rate of 70% would imply that only a small proportion of the population would be affected. With a cross-protection rate of 50%, the second season would have a disease burden similar to the first, while vaccination of 50% of the entire population, in addition to the population vaccinated during the first pandemic season, would halve this burden. With a cross-protection rate of 30%, the second season could be more substantial, and vaccination would not provide a significant benefit. CONCLUSIONS: These model-based findings should help to prepare for a second pandemic season, and highlight the need for studies of the different components of immune protection.
Type de document :
Article dans une revue
BMC Infectious Diseases, BioMed Central, 2010, 10 (1), pp.301. 〈10.1186/1471-2334-10-301〉
Liste complète des métadonnées

Littérature citée [48 références]  Voir  Masquer  Télécharger

http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00668438
Contributeur : Ed. Bmc <>
Soumis le : jeudi 9 février 2012 - 17:12:45
Dernière modification le : mercredi 21 mars 2018 - 18:57:26
Document(s) archivé(s) le : jeudi 22 novembre 2012 - 11:55:30

Fichiers

Identifiants

Collections

Citation

Fabrice Carrat, Camille Pelat, Daniel Levy-Bruhl, Isabelle Bonmarin, Nathanael Lapidus. Planning for the next influenza H1N1 season: a modelling study.. BMC Infectious Diseases, BioMed Central, 2010, 10 (1), pp.301. 〈10.1186/1471-2334-10-301〉. 〈inserm-00668438〉

Partager

Métriques

Consultations de la notice

486

Téléchargements de fichiers

146