Cause-specific mortality time series analysis: a general method to detect and correct for abrupt data production changes

Abstract : Background
Monitoring the time course of mortality by cause is a key public health issue. However, several mortality data production changes may affect cause-specific time trends, thus altering the interpretation. This paper proposes a statistical method that detects abrupt changes ("jumps") and estimates correction factors that may be used for further analysis.
Methods
The method was applied to a subset of the AMIEHS (Avoidable Mortality in the European Union, toward better Indicators for the Effectiveness of Health Systems) project mortality database and considered for six European countries and 13 selected causes of deaths. For each country and cause of death, an automated jump detection method called Polydect was applied to the log mortality rate time series. The plausibility of a data production change associated with each detected jump was evaluated through literature search or feedback obtained from the national data producers.
For each plausible jump position, the statistical significance of the between-age and between-gender jump amplitude heterogeneity was evaluated by means of a generalized additive regression model, and correction factors were deduced from the results.
Results
Forty-nine jumps were detected by the Polydect method from 1970 to 2005. Most of the detected jumps were found to be plausible. The age- and gender-specific amplitudes of the jumps were estimated when they were statistically heterogeneous, and they showed greater by-age heterogeneity than by-gender heterogeneity.
Conclusion
The method presented in this paper was successfully applied to a large set of causes of death and countries. The method appears to be an alternative to bridge coding methods when the latter are not systematically implemented because they are time- and resource-consuming.
Type de document :
Article dans une revue
Population Health Metrics, BioMed Central, 2011, 9 (1), pp.52. 〈10.1186/1478-7954-9-52〉
Liste complète des métadonnées

Littérature citée [30 références]  Voir  Masquer  Télécharger

http://www.hal.inserm.fr/inserm-00634738
Contributeur : Ed. Bmc <>
Soumis le : samedi 22 octobre 2011 - 21:06:42
Dernière modification le : mercredi 29 novembre 2017 - 16:47:32
Document(s) archivé(s) le : jeudi 15 novembre 2012 - 10:21:04

Fichiers

1478-7954-9-52.pdf
Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte

Identifiants

Collections

Citation

Grégoire Rey, Albertine Aouba, Gérard Pavillon, Rasmus Hoffmann, Iris Plug, et al.. Cause-specific mortality time series analysis: a general method to detect and correct for abrupt data production changes. Population Health Metrics, BioMed Central, 2011, 9 (1), pp.52. 〈10.1186/1478-7954-9-52〉. 〈inserm-00634738〉

Partager

Métriques

Consultations de la notice

186

Téléchargements de fichiers

149